The Rise of the Independents: A New Era in American Politics

From the nation's earliest days, political factions have shaped American politics. Even as the ink dried on the Constitution, figures like John Adams and Thomas Jefferson debated the role of political parties. While they differed on many points, both recognized the potential for partisan divisions to shape — and even destabilize — the fledgling republic. This early debate laid the foundation for the two-party system that has dominated American politics for much of its history, particularly the Republican-Democrat rivalry that emerged after the Civil War. 

However, a significant shift is now underway. Independent voters, rejecting traditional party labels, have become the largest voting bloc in the country. They prioritize individual candidates and policy solutions over party loyalty, driven by a desire to address the issues that directly impact their lives.

In this post, we’ll explore why this shift in voter behavior matters and its impact on American politics.

Declaration of Independents

“I’ve seen racism and sexism and income inequality and division. I’ve not only seen it, at times I’ve been on the receiving end of it. But more often than not what I’ve witnessed and experienced are human beings, both conservative and liberal who may not agree with each other, but who’d still help you in a heartbeat if you were in trouble.”

Oprah Winfrey

Registered Independent Voter

When registering to vote, a growing majority of voters in America are rejecting party labels and embracing no-party affiliation. Research indicates this trend reflects a strong belief and frustration—especially among young voters — with a political system that prioritizes party interests over the common good.

Independent voters want a government focused on what matters — one that emphasizes transparency, accountability, and an end to the endless political drama. They want to elect leaders who will be honest and dedicated to moving this country forward. 

While independents view both parties as too extreme, most aren’t looking for a third-party solution. Instead, they choose to cast their vote on issues rather than partisan loyalty, demanding real solutions to the challenges facing America. They draw upon ideas from both sides of the aisle, prioritizing pressing issues facing Americans today, like job availability and affordable housing. 

Among registered independents, 66% identify as moderates and align with each political party based on various issues. For example, independents generally trust Democrats on abortion (70%), healthcare (67%), and climate change (64%). They favor Republicans on crime (66%), the economy (62%), gun rights (61%), and immigration (60%).

Although 80% of Americans perceive the country to be divided on most issues, there is a majority agreement on key topics. Americans broadly support democratic values, healthcare, sensible gun control laws, recognize climate change as a human-caused issue, and back women's reproductive rights. Yet, deep divisions persist on cultural issues, including religion and gender identity.

In this era of heightened polarization, insights from independent voters could play a vital role in reshaping party strategies and restoring trust in the electoral process. It's time to examine the root cause of this dissatisfaction and build a political system that truly serves all of We The People.

Strength In Numbers

“There’s one thing that is guaranteed to increase your feelings of

control over your life: a bias toward action.”

Mel Robbins

Author of The 5 Second Rule: Transform your Life

Americans are more skeptical of politics than ever before. Trust in the government has plummeted from 77% in 1964 - to just 22% today, a sentiment especially strong among independents.

77% of independents feel angry about the direction of the country and 70% believe that both the Republican and Democratic parties are too extreme. Overall, 86% of Americans think the parties spend more time fighting with each other than solving the nation’s problems. 

Despite these reservations and voting obstacles, independent voters showed up in record numbers, with 11 million more casting ballots in the 2024 election than they did in 2020. In fact, more Independents (34%) voted in 2024, matching Republican turnout (34%) and edging out Democrats (32%).

While the economy remained the top issue across swing states, the additional reasons independents trusted one candidate over another varied by region. In Pennsylvania, threats to democracy were the foremost concern; in Arizona, it was immigration; and in Florida, abortion access took precedence.

Given that political behavior is often seen as predictable, can candidates rely on past voting behavior to predict where independents will swing?

Unlikely, according to Thom Reilly author of The Independent Voter “Independents favored Barack Obama in 2008 by 8 percentage points, then swung for Mitt Romney in 2012 by 5 percentage points, then Trump in 2016 by 4 percentage points. In 2020, independents supported Biden by 13 percentage points and then Harris by 3 percentage points in 2024, representing a 10-percentage-point loss of support for the Democratic candidate.” 

Ultimately, the only predictable thing about independents so far, is their unpredictability.

The Independent Forecast

“You want to be the pebble in the pond that creates the ripple for change.”

Tim Cook

Chief Executive Officer of Apple Computer Inc.

While there is no definitive consensus on the number of independents, evidence suggest their numbers are steadily increasing. Much of what we know about voter registration comes from polling data, since not all states require voters to declare a party affiliation. In some states, registration as "unaffiliated" or "independent” is not permitted.

Out of 186.5 million registered voters in the U.S., 27% are registered Republicans, and 27% are registered Democrats. 43% identify as independents, which is an increase from 33% in 1988 when Gallup Polls first started collecting this data.

Among independent voters, 45% lean toward the Republican Party while 43% lean toward the Democratic Party — a nearly even split that can significantly influence election outcomes. For instance, Donald Trump won the 2024 popular vote by just 1.5%, 77,284,118 votes compared to Kamala Harris’s 74,999,166. 

In 2023, Gallup Polls asked survey participants to identify their political views on a liberal-to-conservative scale. 36% of U.S. adults considered themselves conservative (the same percentage as in 1992), while 36% identified as moderate (down from 43% in 1992). Additionally, 25% described themselves as liberal (up from 17%) in 1992, the first year this question was first introduced.

Independents tend to be younger comprising 52% of millennials and 52% of Gen Z, compared to only 33% of boomers and 27% of the Silent Generation (born from 1928 through 1945). 

Sadly, only one in three independents believe their vote will make a difference. This highlights the need for greater engagement and recognition of their importance in the electoral landscape.

A Wake-Up Call for the Parties

“A leader must be inspired by people before a leader can inspire people.”

Simon Sinek 

Author of Start with Why

Candidates can no longer afford to overlook independent voters' growing influence. According to Axios research: “Every election since 2004 — except 2012 — has seen the White House, Senate or House flip control. Antsy, unsatisfied independent voters are the reason.” 

By examining issues through the lens of independent voters, we can highlight the disconnect between party platforms and the diverse perspectives of the American public.

Since independent voters comprise the largest group in the electorate, they hold the power to shape the nation’s future—especially in close elections where less than three percentage points can often win each of the seven battleground “swing” states.

Their tendency to avoid news until closer to Election Day can limit their exposure to sustained political messaging and nuanced policy discussions. This makes them more susceptible to the immediate appeals of candidates and the prevailing sentiments surrounding urgent issues in the close run-up to the election.

This means that the voting behavior of independents may not reflect a steadfast alignment with either party, or party leanings, but rather produce unpredictable swings based on the current political climate. For instance, if a candidate effectively addresses a pressing issue — such as healthcare or crime, independent voters may rally behind that candidate, regardless of their party affiliation.

Political campaigns must engage these voters earlier in the election cycle and provide ongoing, meaningful content that addresses their unique concerns, rather than waiting until just before the election. They must view independent voters not as a statistical anomaly but as a dynamic force capable of shaping electoral outcomes and public policy.

Given the complexities surrounding this influential voting bloc, more research is needed to explore effective ways for candidates to engage with them. They need to develop strategies that keep independent voters engaged consistently, allowing for better-informed choices in the voting booth.

Independent Voters Are Speaking: Who Is Listening?

The message is clear: the era of party dominance is fading, and the age of the independent voter is upon us. This isn't just a political trend; it's a seismic shift — and a wake-up call for every candidate and every party. They must adapt or risk being left behind.

As Simon Sinek wisely said, 'A leader must be inspired by people before a leader can inspire people.' Right now, the people leading the charge are the independents. They are the swing voters, the deal-breakers, and the ones who determine the future of our elections.

But here's the crucial point: they need information. They need nuanced discussions, not last-minute sound bites. They need to understand the issues, not just the prevailing sentiments. And that's where we come in.

This is why we created The News Together. We are not just reporting on this shift; we are living it. We are dedicated to illuminating the political landscape through the lens of the independent voter, providing the insights and analysis they need to make informed choices.

Because here's the truth: the power to shape the nation's future lies in the hands of these independent voters. And by empowering them with knowledge, we empower democracy itself.

Join us. Subscribe. Listen. Engage. Let's navigate this new political reality together, and make sure that when the dust settles, the voice of the independent voter is the loudest voice in the room. Thank you!